Why Humans Continuously Revert to Confirmation Bias
Is confirmation bias a helpful or hurtful thing to do? Let’s look at the science.
Confirmation bias is the tendency to look for evidence around us that supports the things we already believe, opinions we already have, and expectations we already hold (Nickerson, 1998). Research tells us that this is a very strong and mostly unconscious tendency. For example, a series of studies showed that people still exhibit confirmation bias even if you offer them a more plausible hypothesis, incentivize them to be as accurate as possible, or present evidence that their hypothesis is not likely to be true (Snyder & Swann, 1978).
We question evidence that contradicts our beliefs more diligently than we question evidence that confirms our beliefs – in fact, we might not give confirmatory evidence much scrutiny at all (Hart et al., 2009). People also go out of their way to not encounter information that would disconfirm their beliefs (Koriat et al., 1980).
To try to put yourself in this mindset, you might try to remember the last time you were angry at a good friend or a romantic partner. Did you see their attempts to connect with you as authentic and well-intentioned, or were you suspicious of their motives? Could you remember all the times you felt good about them, or was it suddenly easier to recall all the conflicts you have had with that person?
Confirmation bias means ignoring or downplaying some of the data you get about the world around you. That doesn’t seem adaptive, does it? And yet, confirmation bias shows up in our lives all the time (Nickerson, 1998), so there must be a way that it helps us. In fact, there are at least three potential explanations for why we persist in demonstrating confirmation bias (Peters, 2022).
First, confirmation bias can help us achieve our personal goals by keeping us dedicated to them (Mercier & Sperber, 2011). Think about it: if you were easily convinced by other people that your opinion was not accurate, you would move through the world struggling to achieve your personal goals, because other people could easily discourage you from pursuing them (Peters, 2022). In fact, our own conviction in our beliefs can bring other people over to our side of the equation, making it easier to achieve our goals.
Confirmation bias can make it easier for us to function in group settings, too (Peters, 2022). This can look two ways: First, our dedication to our own beliefs may cause group processes to be more thorough and thoughtful than if everybody simply gave up their own perspectives and chose to agree with each other. Second, it is likely that confirmation bias, experienced on a group level, helps the group stay committed to, and move toward, shared goals. This is probably part of how traditions develop and are maintained: over time, we build a collective sense that “this is the right way to do this,” and that strengthens connections within the group that shares that tradition.
A final reason confirmation bias is helpful is exemplified through couples therapy. Would you believe that couples in which the partners have inaccurate but positive beliefs about their partners tend to have happier relationships (Miller et al., 2006)? A mild to moderate tendency to delude ourselves – in a positive direction – can actually be adaptive (Peters, 2022). In romantic relationships, for example, it likely has the positive effect of causing the other person to see themselves through the same rose-colored glasses that their partner does.
“The trouble is that once people develop an implicit theory, the confirmation bias kicks in and they stop seeing evidence that doesn’t fit it.”
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Research has given us at least a couple of ways to interrupt our tendency toward confirmation bias. First researchers found that if you make the experience of learning about something less fluent, such as through making an article hard to physically read, what you have read will be less influenced by confirmation bias (Hernandez & Preston, 2013). At the risk of extrapolating too much from their findings, this might mean that taking breaks while reading or learning, or perhaps going back and forth often between competing views on a topic, might shake us out of our confirmation bias routines.
Second, it seems that if we are prompted, or primed, to be distrustful in a situation, we will evaluate things more objectively (Mayo et al., 2014). In this study, the researchers made people distrustful by showing them a face that elicited their distrust, so if there are things in your life that make you naturally suspicious, reminding yourself of them may help you be a more objective thinker.
Confirmation bias is a part of the inevitable tradeoffs that come with having such powerful brains and human needs. We are not just rational actors – we cannot evaluate everything with a calm and objective mind. We look for the things in the world that reassure us that we are safe, and that things are going according to plan. But there is growth to be had when we consciously choose to look for – and look more closely – at the things that might challenge us. Confirmation bias is part of being human, and so is trying to catch ourselves in the act so we can get a little closer to the whole truth.
● Hart, W., Albarracín, D., Eagly, A. H., Brechan, I., Lindberg, M. J., & Merrill, L. (2009). Feeling validated versus being correct: a meta-analysis of selective exposure to information. Psychological Bulletin, 135, 555–588.
● Hernandez, I., & Preston, J. L. (2013). Disfluency disrupts the confirmation bias. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 49(1), 178–182.
● Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107–118.
● Mayo, R., Alfasi, D., & Schwarz, N. (2014). Distrust and the positive test heuristic: Dispositional and situated social distrust improves performance on the Wason Rule Discovery Task. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143(3), 985–990.
● Mercier, H., & Sperber, D. (2011). Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 34(2), 57–111.
● Miller, P. J., Niehuis, S., & Huston, T. L. (2006). Positive illusions in marital relationships: A 13-year longitudinal study. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 32(12), 1579-1594.
● Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
● Snyder, M., & Swann, W. B., Jr. (1978). Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 1202–1212.
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